Articles
A few weeks ago I invited readers to send me their 2010 predictions. The idea is that at the end of the year the person who is most accurate will win a prize. Thanks to the largess of the South China Morning Post, the prize appears to be the notoriety of having your name in the paper with the word “winner” next to it.
Most of the entries I have received are entirely sensible. From predictions about the value of the US dollar against the RMB to forecasts of further financial disaster in the world’s economy. I don’t have space to list all of the entries, but I do want to give you a flavour of what I have received.
So, starting with the sureal: one reader predicts that conclusive proof will be presented that the human race is controlled by an alien race known as “the Greys”; it has also been suggested that the H1N1 outbreak will be revealed as a conspiracy fabricated entirely by pharmaceutical companies in order to sell drugs; third, a perpetual motion device that produces more energy than it consumes will be revealed by the Chinese government; and finally that Alan Alanson’s identity will be revealed as that of the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. I can’t be one hundred percent sure about the first three, but I am certain that the last one is not going to be born out.
Some of the more sensible predictions I have received are that:
1. The AUS:USD exchange rate will reach 1:1;
2. The RMB will appreciate by 10% against the USD;
3. The Hong Kong property market will collapse in the third quarter;
4. The US unemployment rate will reach 14%;
5. Another US bank will be nationalized;
6. Natural disasters will bankrupt the insurance industry; and
7. Oil price will skyrocket as a result of Israel invading one of its neighbors.
Most of the entries follow the same general theme, that the economic recovery is not really an economic recovery, that the US economy is in for trouble and that there is more misfortune on the way for all of us.
My own predictions and those that I have received are of course just amateur efforts. There are plenty of folks out there who make predictions of the future for a living. Economists, market analysts, fortune tellers and celebrity psychics for example are all paid for their predictions because enough people actually believe that these folks know what they are talking about.
The most famous of all predictors of future events is of course Nostradamus. This big-bearded sixteenth-century Frenchman apparently predicted every major event that has ever taken place on the planet, as well as several minor events. Depending on what you read, Nostradamus was able, in 1555, to predict World Wars I and II, the assassination of John F Kennedy, the attack on the Twin Towers, the Iraq War and even the results of the 2008 Major League Baseball playoffs.
The tricky thing however, about Nostradamus, and about all good predictions, is it is practically impossible to interpret anything Nostradamus said as a prophesy until after the event has taken place. For example, one of Nostradamus’ most famous predictions is as follows:
From the human flock nine will be sent away,
Separated from judgment and counsel:
Their fate will be sealed on departure
Kappa, Thita, Lambda the banished dead err.
Don’t know what he is saying? Well, no-one else did either until after the Challenger space shuttle exploded in 1986. Shortly after the shuttle disaster several authors realized that Nostradamus was trying to warn us of the danger of the defective O-rings, and the risk to the lives of the seven astronauts on board, which is quite obvious from his use of the word “nine”.
This is unfortunately about as good as Nostradamus’ predictions get. The genius is not so much in his ability to see the future, but rather in the creativity with which modern authors are able to interpret his vague remarks as specific prophesies.
And this is a valuable lesson to anyone who is in the business of making predictions. Be as vague and as general as possible, and you’ll increase your chances of scoring a hit. Don’t say “there will be an economic collapse in the second half of 2010”, say “there will be an economic event in the medium term”. Don’t say that prices will go “up” or “down”, say that they will be “volatile”.
And if your predictions don’t come true, it’s not your fault. No-one can really see the future whether they’re paid for it or not. An entire army of economists missed predicting the financial crisis, not one celebrity psychic foresaw the collapse of Tiger Woods’ reputation and I’m only aware of one person who really thought at the beginning of 2008 that Barrack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination and then win the US Presidency.
The only people who really know what’s in our future are the members of the alien conspiracy that control the human race, and they’re not talking.
Most of the entries I have received are entirely sensible. From predictions about the value of the US dollar against the RMB to forecasts of further financial disaster in the world’s economy. I don’t have space to list all of the entries, but I do want to give you a flavour of what I have received.
So, starting with the sureal: one reader predicts that conclusive proof will be presented that the human race is controlled by an alien race known as “the Greys”; it has also been suggested that the H1N1 outbreak will be revealed as a conspiracy fabricated entirely by pharmaceutical companies in order to sell drugs; third, a perpetual motion device that produces more energy than it consumes will be revealed by the Chinese government; and finally that Alan Alanson’s identity will be revealed as that of the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. I can’t be one hundred percent sure about the first three, but I am certain that the last one is not going to be born out.
Some of the more sensible predictions I have received are that:
1. The AUS:USD exchange rate will reach 1:1;
2. The RMB will appreciate by 10% against the USD;
3. The Hong Kong property market will collapse in the third quarter;
4. The US unemployment rate will reach 14%;
5. Another US bank will be nationalized;
6. Natural disasters will bankrupt the insurance industry; and
7. Oil price will skyrocket as a result of Israel invading one of its neighbors.
Most of the entries follow the same general theme, that the economic recovery is not really an economic recovery, that the US economy is in for trouble and that there is more misfortune on the way for all of us.
My own predictions and those that I have received are of course just amateur efforts. There are plenty of folks out there who make predictions of the future for a living. Economists, market analysts, fortune tellers and celebrity psychics for example are all paid for their predictions because enough people actually believe that these folks know what they are talking about.
The most famous of all predictors of future events is of course Nostradamus. This big-bearded sixteenth-century Frenchman apparently predicted every major event that has ever taken place on the planet, as well as several minor events. Depending on what you read, Nostradamus was able, in 1555, to predict World Wars I and II, the assassination of John F Kennedy, the attack on the Twin Towers, the Iraq War and even the results of the 2008 Major League Baseball playoffs.
The tricky thing however, about Nostradamus, and about all good predictions, is it is practically impossible to interpret anything Nostradamus said as a prophesy until after the event has taken place. For example, one of Nostradamus’ most famous predictions is as follows:
From the human flock nine will be sent away,
Separated from judgment and counsel:
Their fate will be sealed on departure
Kappa, Thita, Lambda the banished dead err.
Don’t know what he is saying? Well, no-one else did either until after the Challenger space shuttle exploded in 1986. Shortly after the shuttle disaster several authors realized that Nostradamus was trying to warn us of the danger of the defective O-rings, and the risk to the lives of the seven astronauts on board, which is quite obvious from his use of the word “nine”.
This is unfortunately about as good as Nostradamus’ predictions get. The genius is not so much in his ability to see the future, but rather in the creativity with which modern authors are able to interpret his vague remarks as specific prophesies.
And this is a valuable lesson to anyone who is in the business of making predictions. Be as vague and as general as possible, and you’ll increase your chances of scoring a hit. Don’t say “there will be an economic collapse in the second half of 2010”, say “there will be an economic event in the medium term”. Don’t say that prices will go “up” or “down”, say that they will be “volatile”.
And if your predictions don’t come true, it’s not your fault. No-one can really see the future whether they’re paid for it or not. An entire army of economists missed predicting the financial crisis, not one celebrity psychic foresaw the collapse of Tiger Woods’ reputation and I’m only aware of one person who really thought at the beginning of 2008 that Barrack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination and then win the US Presidency.
The only people who really know what’s in our future are the members of the alien conspiracy that control the human race, and they’re not talking.
Psychic fair cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances
Sunday, March 21, 2010
